What is needed is a rational and concerted effort to broker a peace deal which maximizes justice, and which creates new realities on the ground that will help to sustain the peace once it is in place. And so, if you get a call, in the middle of the night, from President Obama, informing you that you have just been appointed U.S. Middle East Envoy; what would you do to bring peace to the Middle East? Here are a few suggestions. Perhaps you have something to add.

Gaza: Negotiate a ceasefire, and then a truce, between Israel and Hamas, on the basis of an Israeli pullout, accompanied by a cessation of missile and mortal fire by Hamas, to be monitored by U.N. observers. Suggest to Hamas to give up their military ambitions in exchange for: an easing of border restrictions, a lifting of an economic blockade, and an opportunity to partner with Fattah to provide a democratic government for the Palestinian people. If Hamas agrees, launch an international investment program for Gaza, with the purpose of: creating jobs, building infrastructure, growing the economy, and weakening the hold of extremist thinking. Along with the hope that comes from economic growth, launch a series of programs to sustain the hope: a more balanced and modern approach to education, a student exchange, a cultural exchange, an empowerment of women, an expanded Peace Corps presence, a media campaign, international conferences, etc.

West Bank: Continue to train Palestinian soldiers, so as to enable the duly elected government to defend itself from outside threats, including the threats posed by Hamas and other extremist factions. Encourage Fattah to reach a workable agreement with Hamas so that the two could work together to negotiate a comprehensive peace deal with Israel for the creation of a Palestinian state, along the lines of the understandings that have been reached between President Abbas and Foreign Minister Livny, and reminiscent of the deal offered by President Clinton and Prime Minister Ehud Barack to President Arafat in the year 2000. Continue to develop the four industrial zones in the West Bank, and launch an international effort to invest in good paying jobs, jobs which grow the economy, jobs which protect the environment, and jobs which help to neutralize extremist thinking. Work to inspire Palestinians with a Vision of Hope, and support that economic effort with Public Diplomacy Programs which are specifically designed to prop the vision up and to carry it forward. Use an Ideology of Common Sense to speak to Palestinians with common sense and with a sense of personal dignity.

Israel: Encourage Israel to embrace and enhance the possibility of peace, and to take positive action in that regard by: negotiating a truce with Hamas, allowing Hamas to partner with Fattah for the sake of democratic rule, helping Hamas to build infrastructure and to grow Gaza’s economy, and helping Fattah to do the same in the West Bank. Encourage Israel to negotiate a final status agreement, one that protects Israel’s security, but one that also allows Palestinians to achieve at least most of their political aspirations. To the extent possible, convince Israel to become actively involved in orchestrating the economic growth of the new fledgling state so that the ordinary Palestinian citizen is finally given a place at the table, a stake in his or her future.

Syria: Encourage Syria to negotiate peace with Israel on the basis of an Israeli pullout from the Golan Heights, along with a U.N. monitored military free zone in that area. Structure a series of economic and diplomatic incentives to lure Syria away from Iranian control, and to cause Syria to stop its support of terrorist organizations, and to stop interfering with internal Lebanese affairs.

Lebanon: Continue to bolster Lebanon’s democratically elected government. Try to steer Hezbollah away from military confrontation, in favor of a political role as part of a duly elected government. Use a Vision of Hope to empower the Lebanese people to embrace the possibility of peace among themselves, and with Israel.

Egypt: Encourage the international community to continue to invest to grow Egypt’s economy and to create good paying jobs. Support Egypt’s efforts to mediate regional disputes. Empower the man on the street with the notion that his life could get better, and use that hope to weaken the hold of extremist thinking. Push for warmer relations between Israel and Egypt on the basis of peace in Palestine, and on Israel’s efforts to help orchestrate an economic revitalization of the Middle East with her technological know-how and her economic drive.

Saudi Arabia: Give Saudi Arabia credit for proposing a comprehensive peace deal with Israel. Encourage Saudi Arabia to continue mustering Arab support in this regard. Encourage Saudi Arabia, in light of lower oil prices, and worldwide green demand, to diversify its investment portfolio by investing in green technology in Palestine, and throughout the Middle East. Use oil profits to create green profits, and use these profits to create even more good paying green jobs, jobs which will grow the economies, jobs which will protect the environment, and jobs which will weaken the strangle hold of extremist thinking. Use a growing economy, and the prospects for Middle East peace, to shift the thinking on the street from an extremist ideology to an ideology of common sense. Use the momentum of change to gear the educational system to a more modern and balanced approach, and to gear religious practice to be more in keeping with the more peaceful aspects of Islam.

Iran: Try to convince Iran that its nuclear ambitions are not in keeping with Iran’s best interests long term. Make the point that a nuclear Iran will be in the crosshairs of many a potent foe, and that the least bit of miscalculation could spell a doomsday scenario. Use diplomacy and economic incentives to convince Iran to give up its nuclear aspirations. As such, Iran could begin to play a vital role in pushing a comprehensive peace process forward, based on mutually shared economic and political interests. Iran could also cooperate by having Hezbollah and Hamas play political, as opposed to military roles. Iran would also be able to quell dissatisfaction from within by delivering to its people the promise of a better day.

With this much on your plate, you may think twice about taking the job. But don’t you agree that a chess game of this sort is what is called for, given current realities on the ground? Don’t we have to table at least some of the emotions and passions, for there to be even the slightest chance for peace? And do we have any choice but to try, even against all odds?

For more information, please visit our website www.sellingavisionofhope.org

“A New Dawn For Humanity, 70 Days Till Bush Leaves the White House”

Grave of an unkown soldier. His sacrifice is not forgotten.

Still, it is encouraging that, for at least one day, we stand against war and denounce it wherever it may take effect. Remembrance Day, or Veteran’s Day in America, is also the day we honor fallen soldiers, those who put their lives in the hands of generals and presidents, and were sent to their deaths in the belief that those generals and presidents were guiding them to a brighter tomorrow, and that their actions would protect their loved ones back home, wherever home may be. Their bravery is exemplified, as it should be, and the sacrifice that they made is highlighted for these brief moments before we move on with our own daily lives.

Today, a Remembrance Day service was held at the memorial cemetery at the end of Mezzeh, where foreign service men and women from countries around the world are buried here in Damascus. The grounds are beautiful, and the up keep is an example to the rest of the city, truly an area where you can contemplate the enormity of these young people’s sacrifice in the wonder of nature. These brave soldiers gave their lives defending their country, and the world, against those who would threaten their sovereignty and security of their homelands and ours. In World War I, it was the Ottomans that had long oppressed the Arab peoples, and had joined forces with the Germans. World War II saw the arrival and stranglehold of the Vichy, Nazi Germany’s French arm.

Yaman, who studies in the United States, shares a story of celebrating Obama's victory in Berkeley, California:

As soon as Obama finished giving his acceptance speech, crowds of students began to gather in the streets of Berkeley. By the time I melded myself into the march somewhere on Durant Avenue, hundreds of students had already amassed. We ran down Durant feeling that a huge weight was off our shoulders, that there were only better days ahead. As we rejoiced, preparing to say goodbye forever to those familiar faces of the Bush regime, it dawned on me that we had no idea where we were going. Where was this march headed?

No one really knew, but we kept going, cheering the whole way. Eventually someone yelled, “to the library,” so there we went, our high spirits annoying those who were trying to study for midterms. Whenever the banality of our pit stop struck us, we simply started marching again. Soon we headed down to Shattuck where we paused somewhere around the BART station. We stood there again roaring in ecstasy about the win. When we got bored again, we kept moving until we found another similarly neutral, meaningless location to rest at until we yet again became restless. There was no organization to the march, no one there to tell us what the win would mean for us, no stops at locations with any political significance. It was more of a happiness movement, than a political one. At least we’d been delivered from the Bush years.

Yaman concludes that, while he's aware that Obama's election stands for change, he is also wary of the vigilance we must keep:

I went through high school and most of college under the Bush administration. Every social issue I ever learned about, fixing it was always a matter for “the long haul.” In these times of never-ending wars, arrogant, disrespectful, and unresponsive government, we always had to fight for everything in “the long term.” Well, Obama now has a long term ahead of him in which he can try to deliver on all these demands for change. We can’t take it for granted, though, that a win for Obama is a win for progressive policies, even if–maybe–it will inaugurate a progressive mood. One hopes that the Democratic party and the Obama administration have a little more direction than our happy crowd did, or we will have to remind them that we did not support them for the sake of supporting Democrats, but because we wanted them to do what we want them to do. We can hope, now, that these won’t be four more years of the same violent Bush rhetoric and policies; but surely, they will be four years of holding Obama and the Democratic party accountable for what they’ve promised and what we’ve asked for, rather than letting the mesmerizing aura stilt our principles and expectations.

Born in Damas reminds us not to forget about the United States' recent transgressions in Syria:

Amidst the celebration of Obama's election as President of the United States the world seems to have forgotten the recent helicopter incursion by US forces into Syria to allegedly terminate some individual that apparently constituted a danger to US national security.

Last month a raid was carried out a few kilometres inside the Syrian border with Iraq.

I have not seen much reaction in the US media about it nor much outcry in international places maybe because the Americans are a bit embarrassed and do not know what to think about this ‘incident' and maybe because the Europeans are totally flabbergasted as it does not fit in with the direction the current Syrian -EU-US relations was going into?

Maysaloon spells it out for those who might praise America:

America's mask is back on and Americanists the world over are breathing a sigh of relief. Those of them in the Arab world have had a particularly difficult time over the last eight years. Whilst they have had plenty of years experience becoming apologists for the murder of Palestinians (nobody cares about these anymore), the genocide in Iraq was a much harder pill to swallow and many felt compelled to publicly criticise the United States - an unthinkable act during the Clinton years. But what has changed in reality with the election of Obama? Nothing, and these Americanists will concede this. Article after article, many say how wonderful he will be and how historic his election is. They then proceed to add the caveat that, in reality, little will change concerning America's position with regards to Israel, the Arabs and Iraq. But that isn't the point. They then proceed to tell you that this is irrelevant, because his election means “change” has come, Americana is back and we can all feel good about it again. So all that has happened is that America has made people ‘feel good' again, so that they stop caring about what it really does, since nothing will change in the Middle East on their own admittance. After eight years of reality, responsibility, guilt and shame, the United States' apologists can now sit back and take a drag of premium Americana hashish. Relax, everything is going to be ok.

The ballot has to be in by the election, so the regular mail was out (usually takes three weeks). I paid 1000 lira for it to be in American in four days. The guy at the post office asked if it was for the election.
“Did you pick McCain or Obama?”
“Obama, of course!”

He smiled and then asked, “He's the black one right?”
“Yes.”
“But aren't you worried he might do things against the whites?”
“No.” I laughed. Like do what? “His policy is better than McCain's. He might work for better relations with Syria.”
“But you are white. You don't know what some one will do once they get power…”
“He will be better than Bush and that's what's important.”

I mean, what do you say to that?

The clerk then asked, “He's Muslim, right?”
“No, he's Christian. But his grandfather was Muslim and he lived in Indonesia when he was younger so he should think more internationally than Bush. And he's not scared of Muslims.”

I wonder if he got the same email. With all the questions I get about prejudice in America and about how Americans hate Muslims, I'm actually kind of impressed this dude thought America was on the verge of electing a Muslim president.

But before we start talking about an Obama agenda, we have to examine what happens in Israel.  In the short term, Ehud Olmert will be Israel’s prime minister.  Given Olmert’s seminal interview in Yediot Ahronot in which he essentially conceded the entire progressive analysis of the conflict over the past 40 years, we can assume that Olmert and the Obama administration might achieve substantial progress on issues like negotiations with Syria and perhaps with the Palestinians.  But I don’t think that Israel will be willing to allow Olmert to seal a deal in any of these matters given the election upcoming on February 10th.

What happens on that date is crucial to the future of the entire region.  If Bibi Netanyahu, leader of the Likud opposition, and until recently frontrunner in the polls wins, then it will be a cold day in Hell before peace agreements are signed with either the Syrians or Palestinians.  In addition, we can expect continuing bellicosity towards Iran (and vice versa).  Certainly an Israeli attack against Iran is in the cards along with escalating violence towards the Palestinians.  One should expect Hamas to forgo its six month long truce and return to Qassam and terror attacks.

No matter how deft Obama’s policy is, I don’t see any way he can make progress with the rejectionist Likud in power.  No one should make any mistake that Netanyahu is capable to doing a Sharon and becoming a pragmatic moderate when faced with governing (as opposed to campaigning, which always brings out the worst in Israeli politicians).  Netanyahu is no Sharon.  He is an opportunist and ideologue at the same time, but he is not pragmatic in the way that Sharon was.

But happily there is another scenario that polls have lately confirmed may be possible.  After facing down two Orthodox parties which were shaking her down for large financial incentives to join the governing coalition she was attempting to broker, her popularity has increased substantially.  Current polls show her with a slight edge over Netanyahu.  It should be noted that such polls are extremely volatile in Israel and there are several political lifetimes between now and February 10th.

That being said, if we project that Tzipi Livni wins the election, then the sky’s the limit.  We will have an eminently pragmatic U.S. president and a newly pragmatic Israeli prime minister.  Both are deeply serious politicians who understand that there is a lot riding on their success not just for their respective countries and the region, but the world itself.  While each side may historically not miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity (to repurpose an old Abba Eban insult directed at the Palestinians), but I believe it will be different with Obama and Livni.

As everyone and their brother (and sister) can tell you–the outlines of an agreement are in place as sketched out in the Geneva Initiative and the 2002 Saudi peace plan: a return to pre-67 borders with slight territorial adjustments, sharing Jerusalem, financial compensation for Palestinian 1948 refugees, full diplomatic recognition and normalization of relations with Arab nations.

Despite the fact that the outline is known, that will not make it any easier to reach an agreement.  Doing so will require Livni to make much more painful decisions than even Sharon made in evacuating Gaza.  Despite the fact that Israel will likely be able to retain the largest and oldest settlement blocs, there will be much pain both for the settlers and Israel at large at giving up on the dream of Greater Israel.

Extremists among the settlement movement have determined to exact a stiff price for every government action that harms their interest.  The threat of Jewish terror is very real.  In fact, the Shin Bet has just warned that such militants may be planning on political assassinations as one of their tactics of drawing blood in the struggle against a state many of them view as illegitimate. The security chief, Yuval Diskin told the cabinet the following:

“The scope of the conflict will be much larger than it is today and than it was during the disengagement,” Diskin warned. “Our investigation found a very high willingness among this public to use violence…in order to prevent or halt a diplomatic process.”

While Diskin did not comment explicitly on the danger of another political assassination, the timing of his warning - just days before the anniversary of prime minister Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination - was not lost on cabinet members.

“They [the settlers] don’t think like us. Their thought is messianic, mystic, satanic and irrational,” Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer said, warning of another political assassination.

“What we are seeing today is the result of a deep rift with the faith-based community, and not only in the West Bank,” Diskin said. “Their…slogan is ‘through war, we will win.”

Clearly, Livni is an untested commodity until now. No one knows whether she, like Sharon, will have the intestinal fortitude to face down the extreme nationalist Israeli right. After all, her own political heritage derives from parents who waved the banner as senior leaders of the nationalist right and may even have supported acts of Jewish terror in the struggle for statehood.  It should be added though, that Livni is no ideologue and has freed herself from any adherence to rightist ideology.  She is a centrist and a pragmatist.  But whether she has a vision of where Israel needs to go and how to get there is an open question.

And this is where the skill and persuasive powers of a President Obama will be called for.  He must forge an alliance with Livni that carries both Israeli and American Jewish opinion before it.  He must also sell the deal to both the Palestinians and the Syrians.  The latter, in particular will require a major break with past U.S. policy.  We must bring the Syrian regime back in from the cold to which it was subjected for the eight years of the Bush administration.  Obama must do this not so much because he admires Bashir Assad, but because doing so will likely transform the region.  Peace with Syria opens the possibility of normalization of Israeli relations with Lebanon.  And finally, “turning” Syria will further isolate Iran and bring Syria into a closer relationship with the west.

Regarding Iran, if an Obama administration can destroy the Iran-Syria alliance while at the same time persuading the ayatollahs that he is willing to open a dialogue with them on issues of interest to them (including normalization of relations)–then perhaps a compromise could emerge on Iran’s nuclear research.  I believe that if the Bush administration can broker a deal with North Korea as appears likely from latest developments, then there is no reason Obama couldn’t do the same with Iran.

I think the prevailing notion of Obama administration Middle East policy should be that there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.  Peace must be a permanent and prevailing interest.  And peace IS achievable.

Jordanian Naseem Tarawneh talks about the Five Friends campaign led by Hollywood celebrities to encourage young people in the U.S to vote in the elections. He writes:

I’m still loving the whole cultural element that has emerged from this election. The “Five Friends” campaign is a pretty interesting usage of Hollywood star power to encourage Americans to vote. It’s kind of ironic that in a democratic country you need the likes of Will Smith and Tom Cruise to give you a reason to vote, while a whole lot of people in the world are still waiting for the day they get to cast their vote in an actual free election (Jordan included). In any case, I thought the video was pretty cool, putting aside how effective celebrity endorsements and activism is or isn’t. What I thought was especially noteworthy, from a techie point of view, is the usage of YouTube and Google Maps in the US elections. Just a few years ago, who would’ve thunk it?

Here are two of the videos from the campaign:

The blogger continues on the subject here.

Orientalista, an American living in Syria, brings up a conversation she had with a man working at the post office in Damascus, when she went to cast her absentee ballot:

The ballot has to be in by the election, so the regular mail was out (usually takes three weeks). I paid 1000 lira for it to be in American in four days. The guy at the post office asked if it was for the election.
“Did you pick McCain or Obama?”
“Obama, of course!”

He smiled and then asked, “He's the black one right?”
“Yes.”
“But aren't you worried he might do things against the whites?”
“No.” I laughed. Like do what? “His policy is better than McCain's. He might work for better relations with Syria.”
“But you are white. You don't know what some one will do once they get power…”
“He will be better than Bush and that's what's important.”

I mean, what do you say to that?

More from Orientalista, here.

Jordanian Moi had a dream he was voting. He writes:

Last night in my dream, I went to the polls, very excited, casted my ballot and went home proud of myself. Then, to my surprise, I received an email when I got home “confirming” my vote for, none other than, a third party candidate! Apparently, I had voted for Bob Barr! I panicked, couldn’t believe that I mistakenly voted for Bob Barr– maybe I was confused between Barack and Bob?! I ran back to the polling place, and begged the elections officer to let me “correct” my vote. And the nice guy let me. Phew, that was a close one!

A couple weeks before that, my nightmare was worse. It was November 5th, and I had fallen asleep the night before while watching the election returns, not yet knowing who had won. Shock and awe. I couldn’t believe it. I couldn’t fathom. I heard Palin’s voice on TV, and I heard cheering. I saw McCain on the screen, smiling gleefully with the blonde gushing next to him.

And Ammar, from Jordan, talks about the “Obamaization of History” :

This is the point of view of a non American observer of American politics, and there sure is alot to see these days, but what makes this election special; both for Americans and non Americans is the possibilities it promises, those remain promises and are not in any way certainties, but with a man with so many complications; his father was a Muslim Kenyan , his mother was a white christian American, he has a Muslim middle name but he himself is a christian, he was accused of having attending a Madrasa or a Muslim religious school when he lived with his mother and step-father in Indonesia, despite the fact that the term Madrasa in the religious aspect of the word has a mental reference to the extremist schools in Afghanistan, and not the mainstream modern Islamic societies, and as a result, his patriotism was, and is questioned like no one's patriotism was ever questioned before, and still, he's the strongest contender to the presidency.

I hope Obama wins, for the sake of Ambition, and all that it stands for, The Ambition of people all around the world, and certainly my own, although I have nothing to do with US politics, but the election of Obama would have a domino effect, or a butterfly effect for the sake of a softer portrayal, I hope he wins, not because I think he's the awaited Messiah as the cynics on the opposite side of the fence describe his campaign, or because I think he'll achieve what the previous 20 presidents failed..or overlooked, but because he represents Ambition, the triumph of hard work, and the overcoming of all the odds.

For Jotman, who blogs on Thailand, the surprise was the US military raid across the Iraqi border into Syria.

Jotman asks:

McCain's October Surprise: Syria?

He further adds:

This WaPo article also discusses the new policy shift marked by the attack on Syria. “

By approving a U.S. military raid across the Iraqi border into Syria, Bush has changed the rules once again. Call it an October surprise — if not, at least so far, the October surprise.”

That's more or less what I called it at the time.

McCain campaign statements prove that the raid on Syria was perceived to have armed McCain with some new political amunition to use against Obama.

Jewish blogger, Richard Silverstein, says the October surprise or rather “madness” could have been statements such as Joe the Plumber's agreement with a question posed to him on whether a vote for Barack Obama means the death of Israel.

He explains:

Well, golly gee, Obama means the death of Israel–that’s sure “penetrating and clear analysis” now isn’t it? I’d suggest if they haven’t done so by now that somebody with half a brain in McCain’s senior echelons oughta flat out deny any validity to this statement. And they also might want to get Joe off the road before he shoots himself or McCain in the foot some more.

You’ve heard of March Madness and an October Surprise? I think John McCain’s October Surprise IS outbursts like Joe the Plumber’s. But I do think instead of October Surprise, we should call it “October Madness,” which seems all John McCain has to offer the American people.

From Barcelona, Spain, Marc Leprêtre offers a number of scenarios. He explains:

Democrats are biting their nails over an “October surprise” – a terrorist attack, an 11th-hour intervention by Osama bin Laden or a Republican resurrection of the race issue are three feared scenarios. Indeed, if Obama does manage to lose, it will probably be thanks to the colour of his skin. A third of voters claim to know someone who will not vote for the Democrat because he is black, according to The New York Times survey.

The blogger continues:

In truth, however, the “October surprise” has probably already happened, courtesy of Wall Street. The financial and economic crisis is proving fatal to McCain. Each time he tries to regroup, the market plunges again, turning voters against the incumbent party held responsible for the mess.

Last last week, McCain seemed to acknowledge he might lose. In New Hampshire, scene of his most remarkable comebacks, he seemed to strike the wistful note of a politician in the autumn of his career. “I can't think of any place I'd rather be as the election draws close, an underdog in the state of New Hampshire,” he told a rally.

Maybe al-Qa'ida, or some sudden, huge foreign crisis will scramble the cards, but there's no guarantee McCain will benefit. Maybe US forces will capture Bin Laden. Maybe the Dow will jump 3,000 points. And maybe pigs will fly.

Petraeus wanted to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but was rebuffed by Bush administration officials at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon, the American news channel ABC News had learned.

Syrian protester holds an anti-American sign during a demonstration (AP Photos)

The General who has widely been credited with the success of the surge in Iraq and who became CENTCOM chief earlier Friday asked the White House whether he could visit Syria shortly before the strike against a target in Syria earlier this week.

According to ABC News, sources said that Petraeus believes diplomacy can be used to drive a wedge between Iran and Syria. Even though his idea to visit Damascus was rejected, he plans to “continue pushing the idea.”

“When the timing is right, we ought to go in there and have a good discussion with the Syrians,” said a Defense Department official close to Petraeus. “It’s a meaningful dialogue to have.”

The Bush administration opposes all negotiations with Syria, accusing the Syrians rightfully of supporting terrorist organizations. Washington believes that talking to Damascus will not only be useless, but may even be counterproductive.

However, Petraeus’ ideas seem to make more sense right now. We have seen in Iraq that diplomacy can work, especially when backed up by military force. Additionally, Syria is ruled by the Baath party, which is not rooted in extremist Islam but in Arab socialism. There is certainly room for the U.S. to drive a wedge between Damascus and Syria for the two are certainly not ideological allies.

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