This is the first US presidential elections in which Brazilians clearly see issues close to their hearts at stake. Both Barack Obama and John McCain have at some point touched on biofuels, international trade, Latin American integration and the place of Brazil in the world. They have listened the Democrat's and the Republican's proposals, and if they could vote next week, Brazilians would probably help to elect Obama. Of the 17,374 votes made by Brazilians on the ‘If the world could vote‘ website, at the time of publication, 86.2% have been cast for the Democrat candidate. But which of them would have the best policies when it comes to Brazil? Otherwise, when it comes to defending America's interest, who would be less bad for Brazil?
Pedro DÃ³ria [pt] tries to answer these questions. He mentions that McCain is the candidate that most mentions both Brazil and Latin America, and that he is the candidate who has opposed the 54-cent-a-gallon tariff on imports of ethanol made from sugar cane, mostly from Brazil. However, DÃ³ria believes that should McCain be elected, he would not be able to live up to his promises, considering that he would not have support from many legislative chambers, whose majority is Democrat controlled. Considering this, the blogger concludes that Obama would be a more interesting candidate for Brazil:
Que tipo de polÃtica energÃ©tica interessa ao Brasil? NÃ£o somos uma repÃºblica de bananas que vive de uma indÃºstria sÃ³ e nossos interesses, nessa histÃ³ria, nÃ£o sÃ£o apenas comerciais. O Brasil sai ganhando mais com uma polÃtica que favoreÃ§a o nascimento de uma indÃºstria mundial e de larga escala de combustÃveis alternativos. Se os EUA investirem pesado neste tipo de indÃºstria, haverÃ¡ um mercado maior em todo o mundo. E o Brasil jÃ¡ tem tecnologias prontas na mÃ£o para vender. O fomento de uma grande indÃºstria de combustÃveis nÃ£o-fÃ³sseis Ã© o ponto chave do governo Obama. Este serÃ¡ seu principal compromisso quando, logo apÃ³s jurar fidelidade Ã ConstituiÃ§Ã£o, fizer seu discurso inaugural. Se ele for capaz desta mudanÃ§a, Ã© uma revoluÃ§Ã£o no mundo.
What kind of energy policy would matter for Brazil? We are not a banana republic that survives on a single industry and our interests here are not just trade issues. Brazil will get more from a policy favoring the birth of a global, and large, alternative fuel industry. If the U.S. invests heavily in this type industry then there will be a bigger world market. And Brazil has already technology in hand, ready to sell. The promotion of a major non-fossil fuel industry is the key point of Obama's agenda. This will be his primary commitment when, soon after swearing allegiance to the Constitution, he makes his inaugural address. If he is capable of changing this, it will be a world revolution.
Ana Paula Freitas [pt], on the other hand, strongly disagrees that Obama would bring any positive outcome to Brazil, specifically, considering that his policy on Latin America proposes an expansion of “the partnership with Brazil to share technology, develop markets for biofuels, and create greener methods of energy consumption. Other important measures that the Obama administration must deal with include the preservation of the Amazon rainforest and the fight against deforestation through economic incentives”. She believes in this sense, Brazil would benefit more from a McCain government:
Deu para entender a idÃ©ia? Barack Obama nÃ£o quer etanol brasileiro. Ele acredita que estimular a produÃ§Ã£o de etanol pode estimular a plantaÃ§Ã£o de cana na AmazÃ´nia, desmatando florestas que ele considera â€˜recurso globalâ€™ no combate ao aquecimento. â€˜Recurso Globalâ€™ Ã© estranho, um pouco megalomanÃaco. EntÃ£o, se Obama for eleito, esqueÃ§am as promessas de que o Brasil Ã© o paraÃso futuro do etanol. Ele quer dar incentivos Ã produÃ§Ã£o americana desse combustÃvel e tornÃ¡-los auto-suficientes. A moral: Obama Ã© fofo, alegre, sorridente, tem carisma e uma sÃ©rie de outras coisas que fazem ser quase irresÃstivel nÃ£o votar nele (no nosso caso, torcer por ele). Parece ser o tipo de cara que vai fazer as coisas mudarem. E ele vai, mas nÃ£o para nÃ³s.
Did you get it? Barack Obama does not want Brazilian ethanol. He believes that stimulating the production of ethanol may increase the sugarcane plantation in the Amazon, deforesting areas that he believes to be ‘global resources’ to combat global warming. ‘Global resources’ is strange, a little megalomaniac. So if Obama is elected, you should forget the promise that Brazil is the future ethanol paradise. He wants to encourage American to become self-sufficient in its production of the fuel . The moral: Obama is cute, happy, smiling, has charisma and a lot of other things which makes voting for him almost irresistible (in our case, supporting him). He sounds like the kind of guy who will bring change. And he will, but not for us.
Some people do hope Obama wins, just because a McCain victory would not bring anything new for the US or for the rest of the world, but are still scared of the prospect of him as the US president. Daniel Duende is one of them. In a way agreeing with the blogger above, he believes Obama will be such a great US president that this alone is a reason to fear him:
Mas Ã© justamente nestes destes pontos, na genialidade e no poder carismÃ¡tico de Obama, e no paÃs que o elegerÃ¡ e o qual ele irÃ¡ governar, que reside o meu medo. Como eu disse, Barack Obama serÃ¡ um presidente muito bom, muito bom mesmo, para seu paÃs. Mas nÃ£o podemos esquecer que paÃs Ã© este, e como ele enriqueceu. Se nÃ£o Ã© o mesmo paÃs que explorou a pobreza e doutrinou o mundo com seu discurso de consumo e globalizaÃ§Ã£o; o mesmo paÃs que interveio nas questÃµes polÃticas e sociais de metade do mundo, sempre em proveito prÃ³prio, e que depois de dizimar os prÃ³prios Ãndios, destruir as prÃ³prias florestas, massacrar a prÃ³pria sociedade debaixo de sua mass-mÃdia brutal e inescapÃ¡vel, decidiu que seria o Ã¡rbitro do mundo nestes e em outros assuntos. Barack Obama serÃ¡ o presidente, um dos melhores de todos, deste paÃs. E na mesma medida que sua competÃªncia serÃ¡ enorme, o poder dos Estados Unidos da AmÃ©rica de ajudar ou destruir o mundo serÃ¡ igualmente maior.
But it is precisely these points, Obama's ingenuity and charismatic power, and in the country which will elect him and which he will govern, that my fear lies. Like I said, Barack Obama will be a very good president, very good for his country. But we must not forget what his country is, and how it got rich. If it is not the same country that exploited poverty and indoctrinated the world with its talk of consumption and globalization, the same country that intervened in half of the world's political and social issues, always to their advantage, and that after decimating their own indigenous peoples, destroying their own forests, massacring their own society through their brutal and inescapable mass-media, they decided that they would be the world referees in these and other issues. Barack Obama will be the president, one of the best of all time, of this country. And to the same extent that his competency will be great, equally bigger will be the United States’ power to help or destroy the world.
Acantus79 blog publishes an article by journalist and Director of Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in Washington, Paulo Sotero, who balances the two candidates against one another and concludes that:
Seja quem for o sucessor de Bush, nÃ£o serÃ¡ fÃ¡cil restabelecer o consenso sobre polÃtica de comÃ©rcio exterior em Washington e abrir o caminho para a conclusÃ£o da Rodada Doha – o objetivo mais urgente da diplomacia brasileira. NÃ£o se deve subestimar, tampouco, a possibilidade de um governo McCain desencadear aÃ§Ãµes no Oriente MÃ©dio ou em relaÃ§Ã£o a Cuba que acirrariam a instabilidade internacional, contrariando os interesses do Brasil. Em contraste, a promessa de renovaÃ§Ã£o do papel dos EUA no cenÃ¡rio internacional representada por Obama poderia ser mais interessante para o Brasil. Ã‰ verdade que na questÃ£o mais premente do comÃ©rcio ele condicionou a retomada da pauta a uma negociaÃ§Ã£o de polÃticas domÃ©sticas capazes de responder aos problemas que alimentam a sensaÃ§Ã£o de inseguranÃ§a econÃ´mica dos americanos. Entre estas estÃ£o consideraÃ§Ãµes sobre o impacto ambiental e social do comÃ©rcio. A lÃ³gica sugere que um presidente democrata teria maiores chances de negociar tais acordos com um Congresso controlado por seu partido e reativar a agenda de comÃ©rcio exterior – um componente essencial de um reengajamento construtivo dos EUA com o mundo. Nesse cenÃ¡rio, a questÃ£o Ã© como responderÃ¡ o PaÃs governado pelo Partido dos Trabalhadores, que proclama a superioridade ecolÃ³gica do etanol de cana e afirma ser de seu interesse nacional preservar a AmazÃ´nia.
Whoever the successor of Bush is, it will not be easy to restore the consensus on foreign trade policy in Washington and pave the way for a conclusion to the Doha RoundÂ – the most urgent goal of Brazilian diplomacy. We should not underestimate the possibility of fierce international instability triggered by a McCain government's action in the Middle East or in relation to Cuba, which would be contrary to Brazil's interests. In contrast, the promise of renewal of the U.S. role in the international arena represented by Obama might be more interesting to Brazil. It is true that when it comes to the most pressing issue of trade, he has conditioned the resumption of a re-engagement with a negotiation of domestic policies which would be able to respond to problems that feed the economic insecurity of Americans. Among these, there are considerations about the environmental and social impact of trade. This logic suggests that a Democrat president would have more chance to negotiate such agreements with a Congress controlled by the same party and reactivate to the agenda of foreign trade – an essential component of a constructive re-engagement between the U.S. and the world. In this scenario, the question is how Brazil, the country ruled by the Labour Party, which proclaims the superiority of ecological ethanol from sugar cane and claims it to be in its national interest to preserve the Amazon, will respond.